Keeper wrote: I see that the leader of North Korea is to have "weapon talks" with Putin. Please God let there be peace.


Way back in April we were alerted that this was about to happen :


' The White House is concerned that Russia is moving towards a 'full fledged defence partnership' with Iran and now plans to dispatch a delegation to negotiate with North Korea.
Meanwhile, the US continues to fear that China will abandon its supposed 'neutrality' and back Russia more directly.'

Source : AXIOS

Both Russia and Ukraine persist with attacks and counter attacks along the line of engagement, with Russia having most success in the last few weeks, but at a terrible cost in terms of men and equipment. We are seeing the last gasps of the Ukrainian vaulted Counter Offensive with none of the major objectives being achieved, and on that measure the Counter Offensive militarily can be assessed as a failure.

Ukraine has had more success neutralizing Russian efforts in the Black Sea, thanks to the significant donations of cruise missiles from the West. However while Russia has pulled back, trying to keep their assets out of range, there are still many strategically significant objectives remaining. The supply of vital long range missiles remains Ukraine's number one military request, though the number able to be supplied is rapidly diminishing. Germany has stocks of their Taurus missile, which is the functional equivalent of the UK Storm Shadow and the French SCALP, but will not supply them without guarantees and technical adjustments to ensure they can't strike Russian soil.

Winter is closing fast with the conditions in the battle space already deteriorating with respect to the movement of both men and machines and in the next few weeks the ability for any combat operations will be greatly diminished, if not impossible. This will create a situation which Ukraine has been dreading since the start of their offensive and which the US more than most among its allies has been warning about, stalemate, or as Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi says, it is now a case of Positional Warfare. Gen Zaluzhnyi published a paper on the matter which has received much attention in military circles, though Zelenskyy insists this does not equate to a stalemate. The reason, static defensive lines with artillery being the major weapon of choice for both sides greatly favors the Russians, which is why the calls for a negotiated settlement are once again growing in volume.

The other change of note is that the Israel/Palestinian conflict has sucked all the media attention away from a war that most of the general public lost interest in some time ago. This is seen as a major drawback to Ukraine, specifically Zelenskyy's ability to strut the world stage drumming up support and donations of the weapons they need to carry on the fight.

KayyGee wrote: The other change of note is that the Israel/Palestinian conflict has sucked all the media attention away from a war that most of the general public lost interest in some time ago. This is seen as a major drawback to Ukraine, specifically Zelenskyy's ability to strut the world stage drumming up support and donations of the weapons they need to carry on the fight.

There is still plenty of information being posted with regard with what is going on in Ukraine on social media and some of the news channels here in the UK. I regularly delve into these bulletins each week .

Yes there is still an active cohort of milbloggers and war watcher that continue discussion on the various social media platforms but that hardly makes it to the Main Stream Media unless there is a visit by one of the regular EU delegates who swan in looking for updates on how their money is being spent. Ursula is there at the moment to discuss Ukrainian aspirations for EU membership, which although they have progressed, are still some ways away. Though if you listen to Zelenskyy it will happen before the end of the year.

Mores the point on the fighting, there was a article today in the NYT highlighting a widening split between Zellesnkyy and Gen Zaluzhnyi which has arisen from the article he has written. Zeleskyy wants no mention of a stalemate or suggestions that the Counter Offensive has been fruitless, though at this stage there is no talk of replacements at the top of the military. There is however is increasing anger being directed towards the west, the US in particular, for "forcing" Ukraine to start the Counter Offensive before they were fully equipped with new western equipment and specifically with the F16 Fighters they had been begging for for months. The now frequent excuse, sorry, justification is that a western military would never have undertaken the mission without adequate air cover and extensive engineering equipment for mine clearance and defence breaching and they are blaming the US and EU for not supplying enough or ramping up their private sector munitions production fast enough.

There will need to be a lot of bridge mending if the alliance between the west and Ukraine doesn't disintegrate completely.

When Trump wins the election in the US he will withdraw funding / military aid for the Ukraine war. The UK Government will follow suit.

It is indeed looking likely that with or without a Trump win the support structure keeping Ukraine's head above turbulent waters is crumbling, both internally but more importantly externally.

Well you could have bowled me over with a feather, I was shocked, shocked I say to hear that a Ukrainian operative with deep ties to the upper levels of the Ukrainian Government and the Ukrainian security services has been named as the chief suspect responsible for the planning and execution of the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline.

On 11 November 2023, a joint investigation by The Washington Post and Der Spiegel drawing on sources in US Intelligence and several EU countries was published. The report claimed that Roman Chervinsky, a former Ukrainian Special Forces commander who is currently in prison on unrelated charges, was responsible for “logistics and support” for the 6-person sabotage group that attacked the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In a statement from Chervinsky’s lawyer he denied any knowledge of the attack. The plan was designed to ensure that President Zelenskyy had plausible deniability.

With a new war to entice readers and viewers focus on the Ukraine Special Military Operation has faded in recent weeks. This has annoyed Zelenskyy who is now complaining that Israel has stolen all of his 155mm artillery ammunition because the US is supplying Israel in preference to Ukraine and the EU is woefully behind its production promises and deliveries. Despite the shift, this is not seen as a huge problem as most of the fighting has shifted to a winter footing with forces more entrenched and conducting only defensive actions.

Zelenskyy has announced that lack of artillery has been supplemented by the delivery of some 2000 Ukrainian manufactured drones to the from line. Current thinking is that these, for the most part reusable platforms will be more effective in the current phase than artillery. The US did deliver greater quantities of ATACMS without much fanfare but these don't seem to have had the impact many were predicting, much in line with other weapons platforms that were touted as game changes.

Always under the surface manpower shortages, for both sides, did receive some airing recently with a report that some 20,000 plus Ukrainian men had deserted the country despite prohibitions to them leaving. It is thought this is only the tip of an emerging issue that grows larger as the war drags on and many are questioning the futility of Zelenskyy's do or die approach.

Ukraine did report some success in opening a new front with a amphibious assault across the Dnipro River and the establishment of a beachhead on the Russia bank near Kherson. Russia validated the reports but say the small incursion will soon be nullifies.

Talk of growing unease among the ruling clique is becoming louder and less hidden, with even suggestions of assassination plots against the top officials of both the government and military being hatched on the two sides of a power struggle that will certainly shape Ukraine's long term future after the fighting stops.

Aida wrote: When Trump wins the election in the US he will withdraw funding / military aid for the Ukraine war. The UK Government will follow suit.

Trump may / may not go to prison / be made to pay for his infinite crimes, before / during / since his tenure in the Oval Office, but I can almost insure you Trump will not serve a single minute in the Oval Office again, no matter how much his extremist following cries.

A recent report published in Time magazine places the average age of the Ukrainian military at 43 years. 20 months ago when the war started it was placed between 30-35 years, a whole generation of young Ukrainians have died because the US and UK would not let Ukraine signed a peace deal before the war stated.

The manpower shortage that has been created is already impacting the economy and is expected to get worse, compounded by the number of returning personnel who will have disabilities stretching from amputations, to severe mental difficulties.

Memos raised in both NATO and the Pentagon are warning that Ukraine can't survive another "fighting season" when the snows thaw next year and that and alternate solution needs to be found, i.e negotiations must commence immediately to end the Special Military Operation. This is despite the usual round of glad handing and visits from top ranking politicians from those professing support for Zelenskyy. However, there are also warnings that the West may have lost much of its leverage to achieve the best deal as Russia's battlefield successes mount and Ukraine suffers from deficiencies across the board, beyond just having sufficient manpower.