I think it will be difficult for Sunak and Hunt to justify not reinstating the triple lock because their justification for not needing a general election to obtain a fresh mandate is that they are still following the 2019 mandate they were elected on - which includes the commitment to maintain the triple lock pension.
Labour made a big point of that promise in a House of Commons debate about the Triple Lock Pension last week.
I can’t help thinking all the promises to look after vulnerable pensioners and be compassionate may not result in reinstating the triple lock, though.
Naturally, I would be pleased to receive the inflation-linked rise, which the Triple Lock promise means it would be based on September’s inflation rate of 10.1%, but I am not sure it’s really fair to reinstate it in the current economic situation.
I know lots of pensioners who receive private pensions, many of them index-linked, have paid off their mortgage and have other sources of income, such as high levels of savings which will attract more interest as rates increase.
In some ways, it does seem wrong that all these pensioners will receive a 10% increase, whether they need it or not, while most workers will have to manage on increases of around 5% or less and they will also be struggling with the rising cost of mortgage borrowing.
Another way the Government could do it would be to use the average earnings increase figure instead, which would increase pensions by around 5%, then make sure the increase in the Pension Credits minimum amounts for top-ups are in line with inflation, so that pensioners who rely mainly on the state pension for income would be eligible for increased pension credit to raise their overall weekly income in line with inflation.
I am wondering if Sunak’s promises to look after the vulnerable pensioners are more likely to be focused on that type of help - increasing the means-tested benefits, such as Pension Credits and giving more payments to help with energy costs next year for those eligible for Pension Credit, targeting the pensioners who need it instead of paying out to all pensioners across the board.
It would be a big risk for the Tories to do that, though - especially for Sunak - he has a big majority of comfortably circumstanced pensioners in his constituency, who would lose out if the pension increases were means-tested!
I guess we’ll maybe know more after tomorrow.