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TOPIC: how do you reconcile this?

how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575033

  • aviator
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for over an year, the world has been facing an unprecedented crisis. people have suffered, both health wise and economically.

earlier, economic dooms day like picture was painted. many economies are in recession. then how is this justified?


EXCEPT FOR FTSE, all other major indices are at yearly highs!

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575078

  • Sandgrounder
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I don't. There's likely to be a few more swings up and down before this pandemic is over and behind us .

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575091

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Sandgrounder wrote: I don't. There's likely to be a few more swings up and down before this pandemic is over and behind us .


what swings? it has been a one way up move since the march panic, with only minor profit bookings and a short panic again on uk strain. of course uk, FTSE , not counting ( may be due brexit?)

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575128

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aviator wrote: for over an year, the world has been facing an unprecedented crisis. people have suffered, both health wise and economically.
all other major indices are at yearly highs!

Correct, "have suffered" but it's not the business of stock exchanges and their indices to track the past. Stock exchanges are looking to the future and that looks rosy.

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575470

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Starfish wrote:

aviator wrote: for over an year, the world has been facing an unprecedented crisis. people have suffered, both health wise and economically.
all other major indices are at yearly highs!

Correct, "have suffered" but it's not the business of stock exchanges and their indices to track the past. Stock exchanges are looking to the future and that looks rosy.


does it really look rosy? with the situation as it is in europe and usa. now probably going bad in china too and who knows how much damage the new strain will cause in other parts.

all this should cause a serious economic setback

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575493

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The stock market is not a metric for the entire economy, it measures 'return on investment' and since most public companies manipulate their stock prices by buy backs, cutting back expenses and labor cost it doesn't mean much to the middle and working class. It means Jeff Bezos is getting rich with the other billionaires. The middle and working class don't put much money in the stock markets. Their pension funds and banks put money in those markets.
Right now the stock market is in a bubble according to most people who study those markets. Investment firms (investment banks also) and rating agencies are inclined to paint a rosy picture. That all includes the bond market too. We could have a redo of 2007 & 8 which would throw us into a deep recession on top of covid killing business.
When middle class and working people have money they spend it, they save it if they can and that keeps the economy going.
So it's complicated and maybe scary. When you look at one set of stats you might be missing the whole story.
Part of the solution is being informed and get active. Helping out as best you can and supporting your community. Vote and be politically active. Do the right thing and don't hate.
That's my take. Do what you can do to stay safe.
“Someone has said that it requires less mental effort to condemn than to think.”
The following user(s) said Well Said: kedro, Dan Dare, Spring, Echo Whiskey

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575494

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aviator wrote:

Starfish wrote:

aviator wrote: for over an year, the world has been facing an unprecedented crisis. people have suffered, both health wise and economically.
all other major indices are at yearly highs!

Correct, "have suffered" but it's not the business of stock exchanges and their indices to track the past. Stock exchanges are looking to the future and that looks rosy.


does it really look rosy? with the situation as it is in europe and usa. now probably going bad in china too and who knows how much damage the new strain will cause in other parts.

all this should cause a serious economic setback

Investors, as a rule, wouldn't buy and, thus, make the indices go up if they (not we) didn't believe in the economy picking up. Driving forces of this wide-spread optimism are the vaccines promising light at the end of the tunnel and the conviction that there's so much pent-up economic growth after the trough in spring last year that the general trend for production and indices will be in one direction only - upward.

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575495

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Starfish wrote:

aviator wrote:

Starfish wrote:

aviator wrote: for over an year, the world has been facing an unprecedented crisis. people have suffered, both health wise and economically.
all other major indices are at yearly highs!

Correct, "have suffered" but it's not the business of stock exchanges and their indices to track the past. Stock exchanges are looking to the future and that looks rosy.


does it really look rosy? with the situation as it is in europe and usa. now probably going bad in china too and who knows how much damage the new strain will cause in other parts.

all this should cause a serious economic setback

Investors, as a rule, wouldn't buy and, thus, make the indices go up if they (not we) didn't believe in the economy picking up. Driving forces of this wide-spread optimism are the vaccines promising light at the end of the tunnel and the conviction that there's so much pent-up economic growth after the trough in spring last year that the general trend for production and indices will be in one direction only - upward.


investors have been wrong earlier too. that is why we have crashes when all keep buying ignoring the bubble formation.

i think USA in particular is going to have a major correction and so will the others. let us see if i will be right or wrong.

anyway, i think it is time to book some profits.

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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575512

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The stock market can be pretty volatile in the short term. They will grasp onto any 'positive' news and will sell big time if they think things are going to hell. In general it's still not a good economic indicator by itself.
“Someone has said that it requires less mental effort to condemn than to think.”
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how do you reconcile this? 1 month 2 weeks ago #3575533

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altshovel wrote: The stock market can be pretty volatile in the short term. They will grasp onto any 'positive' news and will sell big time if they think things are going to hell. In general it's still not a good economic indicator by itself.


stock markets are widely accepted as barometers of economy and mostly that has been proved correct, meaning stocks NORMALLY rise before the actual good news and vice versa.

however, at times the collective wisdom gets replaced by greed and the system fails. mostly it is the blind followers and not too knowlegeable who suffer.

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